BOXSCORUS BXS-1
2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions
Forecasts powered by BXS ratings and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
1st Round
2nd Round
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final Four
Championship
Final Four
Elite 8
Sweet 16
2nd Round
1st Round
south
1
Florida
114
16
Prairie View
55
8
Clemson
61
9
Iowa
67
5
Vanderbilt
78
12
McNeese
68
4
Nebraska
76
13
Troy
47
6
N. Carolina
78
11
VCU
82
3
Illinois
105
14
Penn
70
7
St. Mary's
50
10
Texas A&M
63
2
Houston
78
15
Idaho
47
1
Florida
72
9
Iowa
73
5
Vanderbilt
72
4
Nebraska
74
11
VCU
55
3
Illinois
76
10
Texas A&M
57
2
Houston
88
9
Iowa
46%4
Nebraska
54%3
Illinois
44%2
Houston
56%4
Nebraska
36%2
Houston
64%2
Houston
43%east
1
Duke
71
16
Siena
65
8
Ohio St.
64
9
TCU
66
5
St. John's
79
12
UNI
53
4
Kansas
68
13
California Baptist
60
6
Louisville
83
11
S. Fla.
79
3
Mich. St.
92
14
ND State
67
7
UCLA
75
10
UCF
71
2
UConn
82
15
Furman
71
1
Duke
81
9
TCU
58
5
St. John's
67
4
Kansas
65
6
Louisville
69
3
Mich. St.
77
7
UCLA
57
2
UConn
73
1
Duke
61%5
St. John's
39%3
Mich. St.
52%2
UConn
48%1
Duke
62%3
Mich. St.
38%1
Duke
57%1
Duke
47%
1
Michigan
53%
Championship
Chance of Winning Tournament
16%Michigan
west
1
Arizona
50%1
Arizona
57%2
Purdue
43%1
Arizona
67%4
Arkansas
33%11
Texas
28%2
Purdue
72%1
Arizona
78
9
Utah St.
66
12
High Point
88
4
Arkansas
94
11
Texas
74
3
Gonzaga
68
7
Miami FL
69
2
Purdue
79
1
Arizona
92
16
LIU
58
8
Villanova
76
9
Utah St.
86
5
Wisconsin
82
12
High Point
83
4
Arkansas
97
13
Hawaii
78
6
BYU
71
11
Texas
79
3
Gonzaga
73
14
Kennesaw St.
64
7
Miami FL
80
10
Missouri
66
2
Purdue
104
15
Queens (NC)
71
midwest
1
Michigan
50%1
Michigan
60%2
Iowa St.
40%1
Michigan
69%4
Alabama
31%6
Tennessee
40%2
Iowa St.
60%1
Michigan
95
9
St. Louis
72
5
Texas Tech
65
4
Alabama
90
6
Tennessee
79
3
Virginia
72
7
Kentucky
63
2
Iowa St.
82
1
Michigan
101
16
Howard
80
8
Georgia
77
9
St. Louis
102
5
Texas Tech
91
12
Akron
71
4
Alabama
90
13
Hofstra
70
6
Tennessee
78
11
Miami OH
56
3
Virginia
82
14
Wright St.
73
7
Kentucky
89
10
Santa Clara
84
2
Iowa St.
108
15
Tenn. St.
74
First Four
midwest · 16-seed
16
UMBC
16
Howard
west · 11-seed
11
Texas
11
NC State
south · 16-seed
16
Prairie View
16
Lehigh
midwest · 11-seed
11
Miami OH
11
SMU