Sports Predictions
Know before the game.
Win probabilities and power rankings for MLB, college basketball, football, and the 2026 World Cup — updated daily.
Simulators
ncaab
Does Our Model Know What It's Doing? Round 1 Calibration Report
32 games, real probabilities, no excuses
Greg Lamp · Mar 22, 2026
Latest Analysis
All analysis →ncaab
Round 2 Predictions: Two Upsets and a Blind Spot
Where the model disagrees with the committee, and one game it can't fully see
Greg Lamp · Mar 21, 2026
ncaab
NCAAB Wrapped: March 2026
The BXS model's two-week snapshot before the tournament field is set
Greg Lamp · Mar 8, 2026
soccer
Simulate the 2026 World Cup in Your Browser
48 teams. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Every click recalculates the entire tournament.
Greg Lamp · Mar 5, 2026
mlb
Introducing BXS MLB v2
BXS meets expected runs: a smarter way to predict baseball
Greg Lamp · Feb 18, 2026
MLB Power Rankings
Full rankings →| # | Team | W-L | BXS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dodgers | 0-0 | 1513 |
| 2 |  Yankees | 0-0 | 1512 |
| 3 |  Phillies | 0-0 | 1512 |
| 4 |  Brewers | 0-0 | 1512 |
| 5 |  Blue Jays | 0-0 | 1510 |
NCAA Basketball Rankings
Full rankings →| # | Team | Record | BXS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona | 34-2 | 1974 |
| 2 | Michigan | 33-3 | 1972 |
| 3 | Duke | 34-2 | 1960 |
| 4 | Purdue | 29-8 | 1926 |
| 5 | Houston | 30-6 | 1916 |
Women's Basketball Rankings
Full rankings →| # | Team | Record | BXS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCLA | 32-1 | 1983 |
| 2 | Texas | 33-3 | 1977 |
| 3 | South Carolina | 32-3 | 1953 |
| 4 | UConn | 34-0 | 1951 |
| 5 | LSU | 29-5 | 1933 |