The Models
How Boxscorus predicts outcomes for every sport.
Deep Dive
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How It Works
The methodology behind Boxscorus predictions — why ELO, how the model is calibrated, and what goes into each sport's ratings.
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Sport Models
MLB
BXS-1 MLB Model
ELO-based ratings with pitcher-specific adjustments, home field advantage, travel penalty, and rest. Ratings update after every game played.
NCAA Men's Basketball
BXS-1 College Basketball
ELO ratings for all D-I men's teams, recalculated throughout the season. Feeds the March Madness bracket simulator via 10,000 Monte Carlo runs.
NCAA Women's Basketball
BXS-1 Women's Basketball
The same ELO framework applied to D-I women's basketball. Powers the Women's March Madness bracket simulator.
Soccer
BXS-1 Soccer
Three-way ELO with a draw model, covering 34 leagues worldwide. Each league is calibrated independently for home-field advantage and draw rates.
World Cup 2026
BXS-1 World Cup
National team ratings seeded from club ELO and international results. 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per refresh to compute qualification and advancement probabilities.