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BOXSCORUS BXS-1

2026 FIFA World Cup

2,000 simulations · BXS forecast · June 11 – July 19, 2026

United States · Mexico · Canada

Who will win the World Cup?

Probability of reaching each round

TEAM

BXS

GROUP

GROUPS

R16

QF

SF

FINAL

CHAMPION

1

🇪🇸

Spain

1721

86%
34%
21%
13%
12%
8%

2

🇸🇳

Senegal

1696

76%
29%
17%
11%
10%
6%

3

🇲🇽

Mexico

1669

80%
29%
16%
9%
8%
5%

4

🇯🇵

Japan

1656

79%
24%
15%
8%
7%
4%

5

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

1674

78%
26%
14%
7%
7%
4%

6

🇫🇷

France

1675

70%
24%
12%
7%
7%
4%

7

🇲🇦

Morocco

1660

79%
26%
15%
7%
6%
3%

8

🇦🇺

Australia

1639

76%
23%
12%
6%
6%
3%

9

🇰🇷

South Korea

1639

75%
23%
12%
6%
6%
3%

10

🇦🇷

Argentina

1640

73%
21%
11%
6%
6%
3%

11

🇵🇦

Panama

1638

72%
19%
10%
5%
5%
3%

12

🇪🇬

Egypt

1631

78%
21%
12%
6%
5%
3%

13

🇵🇹

Portugal

1638

74%
20%
10%
4%
4%
3%

14

🇳🇱

Netherlands

1625

75%
21%
11%
5%
5%
2%

15

🇺🇿

Uzbekistan

1632

71%
19%
9%
5%
4%
2%

16

🇨🇮

Ivory Coast

1620

72%
18%
8%
4%
3%
2%

17

🇺🇸

United States

1617

72%
19%
9%
4%
4%
2%

18

🇳🇿

New Zealand

1596

70%
16%
8%
3%
3%
2%

19

🇩🇿

Algeria

1629

70%
19%
9%
5%
4%
2%

20

🇩🇪

Germany

1624

73%
19%
10%
5%
4%
2%

21

🇨🇦

Canada

1595

74%
18%
8%
4%
4%
2%

22

🇮🇶

Iraq

1605

59%
14%
7%
3%
2%
1%

23

🇯🇴

Jordan

1603

65%
15%
7%
3%
3%
1%

24

🇹🇷

Türkiye

1613

70%
18%
8%
3%
3%
1%

25

🇭🇷

Croatia

1615

66%
15%
7%
4%
4%
1%

26

🇹🇳

Tunisia

1583

67%
12%
5%
2%
2%
1%

27

🇳🇴

Norway

1621

60%
14%
6%
3%
3%
1%

28

🇨🇭

Switzerland

1592

72%
15%
7%
3%
3%
1%

29

🇶🇦

Qatar

1603

73%
18%
8%
3%
3%
1%

30

🇸🇦

Saudi Arabia

1580

64%
13%
6%
3%
3%
1%

31

🇪🇨

Ecuador

1579

63%
12%
6%
3%
3%
1%

32

🇭🇹

Haiti

1580

61%
12%
6%
3%
2%
1%

33

🇨🇩

Congo DR

1597

66%
16%
6%
3%
3%
1%

34

🇺🇾

Uruguay

1560

57%
10%
5%
2%
2%
1%

35

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Scotland

1579

64%
12%
5%
2%
2%
1%

36

🇨🇴

Colombia

1569

58%
11%
5%
2%
2%
1%

37

🇿🇦

South Africa

1568

60%
13%
5%
2%
2%
1%

38

🇨🇼

Curacao

1566

59%
11%
5%
2%
2%
1%

39

🇧🇪

Belgium

1584

70%
14%
6%
2%
2%
1%

40

🇦🇹

Austria

1568

59%
11%
4%
2%
2%
1%

41

🇧🇷

Brazil

1584

64%
13%
5%
2%
2%
1%

42

🇨🇻

Cape Verde

1556

57%
10%
4%
2%
2%
1%

43

🇬🇭

Ghana

1546

49%
8%
4%
2%
2%
1%

44

🇨🇿

Czechia

1540

52%
9%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

45

🇧🇦

Bosnia and Herzegovina

1490

49%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%

46

🇵🇾

Paraguay

1535

52%
8%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

47

🇸🇪

Sweden

1497

46%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%

48

🇮🇷

Iran

1500

49%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%

Group Stage

48 teams · 12 groups · Top 2 + 8 best 3rd advance

GROUP A

ADV%

🇲🇽

Mexico

80%
🇰🇷

South Korea

75%
🇿🇦

South Africa

60%
🇨🇿

Czechia

52%

GROUP B

ADV%

🇨🇦

Canada

74%
🇶🇦

Qatar

73%
🇨🇭

Switzerland

72%
🇧🇦

Bosnia and Herzegovina

49%

GROUP C

ADV%

🇲🇦

Morocco

79%
🇧🇷

Brazil

64%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Scotland

64%
🇭🇹

Haiti

61%

GROUP D

ADV%

🇦🇺

Australia

76%
🇺🇸

United States

72%
🇹🇷

Türkiye

70%
🇵🇾

Paraguay

52%

GROUP E

ADV%

🇩🇪

Germany

73%
🇨🇮

Ivory Coast

72%
🇪🇨

Ecuador

63%
🇨🇼

Curacao

59%

GROUP F

ADV%

🇯🇵

Japan

79%
🇳🇱

Netherlands

75%
🇹🇳

Tunisia

67%
🇸🇪

Sweden

46%

GROUP G

ADV%

🇪🇬

Egypt

78%
🇳🇿

New Zealand

70%
🇧🇪

Belgium

70%
🇮🇷

Iran

49%

GROUP H

ADV%

🇪🇸

Spain

86%
🇸🇦

Saudi Arabia

64%
🇨🇻

Cape Verde

57%
🇺🇾

Uruguay

57%

GROUP I

ADV%

🇸🇳

Senegal

76%
🇫🇷

France

70%
🇳🇴

Norway

60%
🇮🇶

Iraq

59%

GROUP J

ADV%

🇦🇷

Argentina

73%
🇩🇿

Algeria

70%
🇯🇴

Jordan

65%
🇦🇹

Austria

59%

GROUP K

ADV%

🇵🇹

Portugal

74%
🇺🇿

Uzbekistan

71%
🇨🇩

Congo DR

66%
🇨🇴

Colombia

58%

GROUP L

ADV%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

78%
🇵🇦

Panama

72%
🇭🇷

Croatia

66%
🇬🇭

Ghana

49%

Knockout Bracket

32 teams · Single elimination · June 28 – July 19

R32

🇲🇽

Mexico

57%
🇨🇭

Switzerland

43%
🇩🇪

Germany

78%
🇿🇦

RSA

22%
🇯🇵

Japan

58%
🇲🇦

Morocco

42%
🇲🇦

Morocco

58%
🇳🇱

Netherlands

42%
🇸🇳

Senegal

84%
🇧🇷

Brazil

16%
🇩🇪

Germany

38%
🇸🇳

Senegal

62%
🇲🇽

Mexico

85%
🇹🇳

Tunisia

15%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

70%
🇨🇩

Congo DR

30%

R16

🇲🇽

Mexico

59%
🇩🇪

Germany

41%
🇲🇦

Morocco

56%
🇳🇱

Netherlands

44%
🇸🇳

Senegal

81%
🇩🇪

Germany

19%
🇲🇽

Mexico

52%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

48%

QF

🇲🇽

Mexico

36%
🇲🇦

Morocco

64%
🇸🇳

Senegal

67%
🇲🇽

Mexico

33%

SF

🇲🇽

Mexico

48%
🇸🇳

Senegal

52%

FINAL

🇸🇳

Senegal

42%
🇪🇸

Spain

58%

🏆

SF

🇪🇸

Spain

66%
🇦🇷

Argentina

34%

QF

🇪🇬

Egypt

32%
🇪🇸

Spain

68%
🇦🇷

Argentina

53%
🇵🇹

Portugal

47%

R16

🇦🇺

Australia

49%
🇪🇬

Egypt

51%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

32%
🇪🇸

Spain

68%
🇨🇦

Canada

41%
🇦🇷

Argentina

59%
🇵🇹

Portugal

51%
🇺🇸

USA

49%

R32

🇦🇺

Australia

79%
🇶🇦

Qatar

21%
🇪🇬

Egypt

87%
🇨🇿

Czechia

13%
🇺🇿

Uzbekistan

44%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

56%
🇪🇸

Spain

68%
🇦🇷

Argentina

32%
🇨🇦

Canada

82%
🇮🇷

Iran

18%
🇦🇷

Argentina

60%
🇸🇦

KSA

40%
🇵🇹

Portugal

74%
🇭🇷

Croatia

26%
🇺🇸

USA

56%
🇧🇪

Belgium

44%

Probabilities based on 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations using BXS ratings derived from international match history. Updated after each match day.

Boxscorus • 2026