BOXSCORUS BXS-1

2026 FIFA World Cup

2,000 simulations · BXS forecast · June 11 – July 19, 2026

United States · Mexico · Canada

Who will win the World Cup?

Probability of reaching each round

TEAM

BXS

GROUP

GROUPS

R16

QF

SF

FINAL

WIN IT ALL

1

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

1730

92%
42%
25%
17%
16%
11%

2

🇫🇷

France

1721

88%
44%
28%
17%
16%
10%

3

🇧🇪

Belgium

1693

91%
39%
22%
13%
12%
7%

4

🇳🇱

Netherlands

1670

84%
33%
21%
12%
10%
5%

5

🇨🇭

Switzerland

1662

87%
33%
19%
10%
9%
5%

6

🇭🇷

Croatia

1669

86%
31%
17%
10%
9%
5%

7

🇪🇸

Spain

1682

84%
30%
17%
10%
10%
5%

8

🇦🇷

Argentina

1662

81%
28%
16%
8%
8%
4%

9

🇧🇷

Brazil

1651

82%
27%
16%
8%
7%
3%

10

🇨🇴

Colombia

1654

80%
27%
15%
7%
6%
3%

11

🇩🇪

Germany

1646

83%
30%
16%
8%
7%
3%

12

🇵🇹

Portugal

1634

78%
26%
14%
7%
7%
3%

13

🇳🇴

Norway

1629

73%
23%
12%
6%
6%
3%

14

🇩🇿

Algeria

1607

74%
19%
9%
4%
4%
2%

15

🇲🇦

Morocco

1600

75%
18%
9%
4%
4%
2%

16

🇦🇹

Austria

1585

67%
15%
7%
3%
3%
2%

17

🇯🇵

Japan

1585

70%
16%
7%
3%
3%
1%

18

🇸🇳

Senegal

1567

62%
14%
6%
2%
2%
1%

19

🇰🇷

South Korea

1557

73%
17%
7%
3%
2%
1%

20

🇹🇳

Tunisia

1560

63%
13%
6%
2%
2%
1%

21

🇮🇷

Iran

1500

61%
10%
4%
2%
2%
1%

22

🇺🇾

Uruguay

1598

73%
17%
8%
3%
3%
1%

23

🇿🇦

South Africa

1550

71%
15%
6%
2%
2%
1%

24

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Scotland

1535

61%
10%
4%
2%
2%
1%

25

🇺🇸

United States

1534

71%
15%
6%
2%
2%
1%

26

🇦🇺

Australia

1538

72%
13%
5%
2%
2%
1%

27

🇺🇿

Uzbekistan

1534

59%
11%
4%
2%
2%
1%

28

🇪🇨

Ecuador

1544

67%
13%
5%
1%
1%
1%

29

🏳️

TBD-UEFA-A

1500

61%
11%
5%
2%
1%
1%

30

🇨🇮

Ivory Coast

1542

65%
12%
5%
2%
2%
1%

31

🇪🇬

Egypt

1504

62%
10%
4%
1%
1%
1%

32

🇲🇽

Mexico

1517

66%
11%
4%
1%
1%
1%

33

🇨🇼

Curacao

1484

52%
8%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

34

🇨🇻

Cape Verde

1528

60%
10%
4%
1%
1%
<1%

35

🏳️

TBD-UEFA-B

1500

51%
8%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

36

🇨🇦

Canada

1523

67%
13%
5%
2%
2%
<1%

37

🇸🇦

Saudi Arabia

1478

50%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%

38

🏳️

TBD-UEFA-D

1500

60%
8%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

39

🇬🇭

Ghana

1469

48%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%

40

🇵🇾

Paraguay

1488

61%
9%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

41

🏳️

TBD-ICP-1

1500

51%
8%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

42

🏳️

TBD-UEFA-C

1500

63%
10%
3%
1%
1%
<1%

43

🇯🇴

Jordan

1490

46%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%

44

🇵🇦

Panama

1433

37%
3%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%

45

🇳🇿

New Zealand

1454

50%
5%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%

46

🏳️

TBD-ICP-2

1500

44%
6%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%

47

🇶🇦

Qatar

1452

51%
6%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%

48

🇭🇹

Haiti

1487

51%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%

Group Stage

48 teams · 12 groups · Top 2 + 8 best 3rd advance

GROUP A

ADV%

🇰🇷

South Korea

73%
🇿🇦

South Africa

71%
🇲🇽

Mexico

66%
🏳️

TBD-UEFA-D

60%

GROUP B

ADV%

🇨🇭

Switzerland

87%
🇨🇦

Canada

67%
🏳️

TBD-UEFA-A

61%
🇶🇦

Qatar

51%

GROUP C

ADV%

🇧🇷

Brazil

82%
🇲🇦

Morocco

75%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Scotland

61%
🇭🇹

Haiti

51%

GROUP D

ADV%

🇺🇸

United States

71%
🇦🇺

Australia

72%
🏳️

TBD-UEFA-C

63%
🇵🇾

Paraguay

61%

GROUP E

ADV%

🇩🇪

Germany

83%
🇪🇨

Ecuador

67%
🇨🇮

Ivory Coast

65%
🇨🇼

Curacao

52%

GROUP F

ADV%

🇳🇱

Netherlands

84%
🇯🇵

Japan

70%
🇹🇳

Tunisia

63%
🏳️

TBD-UEFA-B

51%

GROUP G

ADV%

🇧🇪

Belgium

91%
🇪🇬

Egypt

62%
🇮🇷

Iran

61%
🇳🇿

New Zealand

50%

GROUP H

ADV%

🇪🇸

Spain

84%
🇺🇾

Uruguay

73%
🇨🇻

Cape Verde

60%
🇸🇦

Saudi Arabia

50%

GROUP I

ADV%

🇫🇷

France

88%
🇳🇴

Norway

73%
🇸🇳

Senegal

62%
🏳️

TBD-ICP-2

44%

GROUP J

ADV%

🇦🇷

Argentina

81%
🇩🇿

Algeria

74%
🇦🇹

Austria

67%
🇯🇴

Jordan

46%

GROUP K

ADV%

🇨🇴

Colombia

80%
🇵🇹

Portugal

78%
🇺🇿

Uzbekistan

59%
🏳️

TBD-ICP-1

51%

GROUP L

ADV%

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

92%
🇭🇷

Croatia

86%
🇬🇭

Ghana

48%
🇵🇦

Panama

37%

Knockout Bracket

32 teams · Single elimination · June 28 – July 19

R32

🇲🇽

Mexico

48%
🇨🇦

Canada

52%
🇩🇪

Germany

88%
🏳️

TBD-UEFA-D

12%
🇳🇱

Netherlands

66%
🇲🇦

Morocco

34%
🇧🇷

Brazil

67%
🇯🇵

Japan

33%
🇫🇷

France

90%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Scotland

10%
🇪🇨

Ecuador

32%
🇫🇷

France

68%
🇰🇷

South Korea

79%
🇨🇻

Cape Verde

21%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

87%
🇺🇿

Uzbekistan

13%

R16

🇲🇽

Mexico

28%
🇩🇪

Germany

72%
🇳🇱

Netherlands

55%
🇧🇷

Brazil

45%
🇫🇷

France

91%
🇪🇨

Ecuador

9%
🇰🇷

South Korea

20%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

80%

QF

🇩🇪

Germany

33%
🇳🇱

Netherlands

67%
🇫🇷

France

62%
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

England

38%

SF

🇳🇱

Netherlands

41%
🇫🇷

France

59%

FINAL

🇫🇷

France

59%
🇧🇪

Belgium

41%

🏆

SF

🇧🇪

Belgium

67%
🇨🇴

Colombia

33%

QF

🇧🇪

Belgium

57%
🇪🇸

Spain

43%
🇨🇭

Switzerland

53%
🇨🇴

Colombia

47%

R16

🇦🇺

Australia

18%
🇧🇪

Belgium

82%
🇭🇷

Croatia

41%
🇪🇸

Spain

59%
🇨🇭

Switzerland

53%
🇦🇷

Argentina

47%
🇨🇴

Colombia

69%
🇺🇸

USA

31%

R32

🇦🇺

Australia

73%
🏳️

TBD-UEFA-A

27%
🇧🇪

Belgium

91%
🇸🇳

Senegal

9%
🇵🇹

Portugal

41%
🇭🇷

Croatia

59%
🇪🇸

Spain

67%
🇩🇿

Algeria

33%
🇨🇭

Switzerland

86%
🇪🇬

Egypt

14%
🇦🇷

Argentina

63%
🇺🇾

Uruguay

37%
🇨🇴

Colombia

82%
🇬🇭

Ghana

18%
🇺🇸

USA

51%
🇮🇷

Iran

49%

Probabilities based on 2,000 Monte Carlo simulations using BXS ratings derived from international match history. Updated after each match day.

Boxscorus • 2026