2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions
Forecasts powered by BXS ratings and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
1st Round
2nd Round
Sweet 16
Elite 8
Final Four
Championship
Final Four
Elite 8
Sweet 16
2nd Round
1st Round
south
1
Duke
86%16
Grand Canyon / Robert Morris
8
S. Fla.
41%9
N. Carolina
59%5
Virginia
57%12
Cincinnati
43%4
Akron
37%13
UCLA
63%6
Vanderbilt
60%11
Miami FL
40%3
Illinois
65%14
Iowa
35%7
Utah St.
44%10
Villanova
56%2
St. Mary's
70%15
Hofstra
30%1
Duke
70%9
N. Carolina
30%5
Virginia
54%13
UCLA
46%6
Vanderbilt
45%3
Illinois
55%10
Villanova
51%2
St. Mary's
49%1
Duke
62%5
Virginia
38%3
Illinois
59%2
St. Mary's
41%1
Duke
56%3
Illinois
44%1
Duke
47%east
1
Michigan
93%16
Tenn. St.
7%8
Tennessee
66%9
Tulsa
34%5
Iowa St.
68%12
SD State
32%4
St. Louis
55%13
Dayton
45%6
McNeese
25%11
Wisconsin
75%3
Mich. St.
68%14
Texas
32%7
Santa Clara
66%10
St. Thomas
34%2
Houston
74%15
UNI
26%1
Michigan
69%8
Tennessee
31%5
Iowa St.
62%4
St. Louis
38%11
Wisconsin
43%3
Mich. St.
57%7
Santa Clara
33%2
Houston
67%1
Michigan
64%5
Iowa St.
36%3
Mich. St.
49%2
Houston
51%1
Michigan
57%2
Houston
43%1
Michigan
53%1
Michigan
53%
1
Florida
47%
Championship
Chance of Winning Tournament
53%Michigan
Hover over a team to see their
path to the championship.
west
1
Arizona
50%1
Arizona
56%2
UConn
44%1
Arizona
61%5
Alabama
39%3
Purdue
52%2
UConn
48%1
Arizona
66%8
Kansas
34%5
Alabama
59%13
Texas A&M
41%6
Arkansas
48%3
Purdue
52%7
Yale
34%2
UConn
66%1
Arizona
79%16
NC State
21%8
Kansas
78%9
SFA
22%5
Alabama
70%12
New Mexico
30%4
Miami OH
40%13
Texas A&M
60%6
Arkansas
57%11
BYU
43%3
Purdue
63%14
Kentucky
37%7
Yale
51%10
Belmont
49%2
UConn
84%15
Navy
16%midwest
1
Florida
50%1
Florida
57%2
Gonzaga
43%1
Florida
60%4
Texas Tech
40%3
St. John's
51%2
Gonzaga
49%1
Florida
71%8
VCU
29%5
High Point
30%4
Texas Tech
70%6
Louisville
46%3
St. John's
54%7
Nebraska
50%2
Gonzaga
50%1
Florida
87%16
Sam Houston / TCU
8
VCU
68%9
UNCW
32%5
High Point
59%12
ND State
41%4
Texas Tech
59%13
Ohio St.
42%6
Louisville
56%11
Clemson
44%3
St. John's
60%14
Georgia
40%7
Nebraska
74%10
Utah Valley
26%2
Gonzaga
79%15
Winthrop
21%